Jake Long Signs With Dolphins

ESPN is announcing today that Jake Long has signed a contract with the Miami Dolphins and will be chosen with the first overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Jake definitely fills a need for Miami although they may have preferred signing a player lower in the draft for less money. The final sum was less than last year’s number one pick, Jamarcus Russel received.

So much for Jeff Ireland’s “defensive pillar”.

The Rams will probably take Chris Long with the second pick and I doubt anyone will be interested in trading up to the number 2 spot.

2008 NFL Draft Thoughts

This is an interesting draft coming up. There is no consensus top talent, and the top pick in the draft belongs to the wiley Bill Parcells.

Mock drafts are tough this year because so much hinges on what happens with the first few spots, and specifically the first pick overall, that predicting the rest of the first round is dicey.

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that a last minute deal could be made for the Dolphins to deal the first pick, or more likely, another top five team dealing their pick to trade down to someone like the Eagles.

Here’s a look at the first few picks, with predictions:

1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long

The offensive line needs the most help of any position on the Dolphins roster. Jake Long is an excellent right tackle and run blocker. Some day he isn’t up to the challenge of left tackle and that his pass blocking skills need work. Bill Parcells wants to run the ball, and Jake can help him do it.

The matter isn’t so clear cut, however. The Dolphins want to pay the number one pick less than Russel got last year, and Jake Long’s agent reportedly wants more. There have also been rumors that Jake didn’t want to move to Miami and would prefer to play elsewhere. This sounds a little hard to swallow as there are a lot worse places to play and worse guys to play for. If this is true, and Long’s agent is playing hardball, Bill Parcellls likely wouldn’t waste time on the guy. Rumors today have also been circulating that Jake and the Dolphins are finally close to signing a deal, but pundits over at Pro Football Talk are suggesting the stories are a ruse started by Parcells.

I personally like Chris Long as the best fit for the team and the king of guy you can build around. The problem with this is Jason Taylor. Chris Long would likely play DE/OLB in a 3-4 scheme and would be somewhat redundant with Taylor, whose future in Miami is questionable. In a recent interview, Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland said the team is looking for a “defensive pillar” to build the team around. This was said while the team was negotiating with Jake Long. Was this an honest slip up, a sign of things to come or a deliberate attempt at misdirection? We’ll find out on Saturday.

The last name to consider at this spot is Vernon Gholston, who would fill a similar role as Chris Long. Gholston is a top talent, and is flexible enough to play where needed. He also might be able to be had for less than Jake or Chris.

I don’t see any chance of the Phins taking Matt Ryan. Miami seems to be high on Michigan QB Chad Henne, and think he’s just as good as Ryan. Parcells also seems to have faith in John Beck.

2.  St. Louis Rams: Chris Long

If Miami passes on Jake Long, many think the Rams will take him, otherwise it comes down to Chris Long and Vernon Gholston, with the pick going to Chris. There was talk that Jake Long’s agent was using the Rams as leverage with Miami, saying that the Rams are willing to pay his client the big bucks if Miami didn’t pony up.

The Rams are looking to play a 3-4 defense and there are some doubts whether or not DT Glen Dorsey is up for the challenge.

I think the Rams are going to take whichever of the Longs are left on the board, or take Jake if both are available. I’m not buying into the rumors that the Rams have Darren McFadden at the top of their board.

This is a good time to talk about overall draft trends. Depending on who goes early, we may see a run on certain positions. If the Dolphins chose Vernon Gholston and the Rams pick Chris Long, then other teams might feel more pressure to pick a defensive end up sooner rather than risk getting shut out later. Guys like Derrick Harvey could move up significantly. Likewise if OTs Jake Long and Ryan Clady both go high.

When it comes to Quarterbacks, Matt Ryan will likely go fairly high, but exactly where he lands could have a big impact on the rest of the crop. If Ryan went first, Brian Brohm’s stock would improve greatly. If Ryan drops down a bit, Brohm might not go until the second round. OK, back to the action.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan

This is a tough pick. I think after having been burned by Michael Vick, the Falcons are looking for a franchise quarterback that can be a team leader. Ryan can be a big play guy and can be a leader in the huddle. He’s proved himself in clutch games at the end of his career in Boston College. His interceptions are a bit troubling and many question if he really is worth a top 5 pick. The problem is there aren’t that many good QBs available this year and while Ryan might not be the next Dan Marino, he’s the best that’s available right now.

If the Falcons didn’t go with Ryan, the pick would likely go to Glen Dorsey or possibly one of the Longs if available.

4. Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden

The smart pick for Oakland is to pick the best available defensive end, and that’s a definite possibility. The bottom line is that Al Davis is making the pick, and he just can’t say no to the exciting McFadden.

If Oakland does pass on Darren, we might see another team try to trade up to grab him as soon as possible.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan Clady

The Chiefs would love to see Jake Long fall into their laps, but the odds are against it. The smart move for KC is to get the best OT they can find and the Boise State star is the best available. The Chiefs need to get some protection for Brodie Croyle and would be best served picking up Clady. At this point in the draft however, Clady won’t be the best available overall talent and it might be too early to pick him. Glenn Dorsey is going to make a very tempting target if a team is willing to take the risk with his injury history. Also, if Matt Ryan falls the Chiefs could give him a look, but I think it’s unlikely.

6. NY Jets: Vernon Gholston

This is another tough one to call. The Jets are hoping Oakland makes a wise choice and goes with a DE, letting McFadden fall. If Darren is available, the Jets will undoubtedly take him. If McFadden goes to Oakland, the Jets will likely start working the phone to arrange to trade down. If they can’t find a suitable offer, the safest bet is to take the best available and in this case it’s Gholston. Despite signing Calvin Pace earlier, the Jets could benefit from having a guy like Vernon on the team to get at opposing quarterbacks.

7. New England Patriots: Leodis McKelvin

The CB from Troy will help the Pats fill in holes created by the departure of Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. I’ve seen a lot of other theories for the Pats at this spot, including picking up a guard or trading the pick, but to me a quality CB is a priority right now that makes the most sense for New England to address.

8. Baltimore Ravens: Glenn Dorsey

The Ravens are desperately hoping that Matt Ryan drops down to this spot. If he does, it’s a done deal. The Ravens would also like Leodis McKelvin, and he could very well be available. If Ryan is off the table the other choice left is Dorsey. Atlanta takes Dorsey early, Matt Ryan will be the Ravens next starting QB, but I like Atlanta picking up a QB and Dorsey dropping a bit. The Ravens will be entertaining offers for the pick if Ryan can’t be had.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Sedrick Ellis

The Bengals need help stopping the run and plugging up the center. Odds are that Dorsey will be gone, and Sedrick Ellis is a top notch player that will be a big boost the the Bengals’ D-line.

10. New Orleans Saints: Mike Jenkins

If NO can’t get their hands on Dorsey or Ellis, they’ll look at one of the available cornerbacks, with South Florida’s Mike Jenkins being the one who gets the nod. Dominique Rogers-Cromartie will also get consideration here.

So there’s a quick run down of the top 10 picks and how I see them going down. There are a lot of ways this Saturday’s action could go down and it will be interesting to watch.

Draft Day Inches Closer

There hasn’t been much in the way of interesting news regarding the Dolphins.

Jason Taylor is still with the team despite rumors that Jacksonville is interested in trading for him. Apparently the Jaguars are looking to give up a 3rd round pick but Miami is looking for at least a second round pick. JT still has a few all-star seasons left in him and I don’t think there is any particular reason Parcells and company need to get rid of him any time soon. I don’t see this deal ultimately working out.

No real news on the draft front. One source reported that the Dolphins draft board is already set, which makes you wonder why they are still inviting players for private workouts.

No one seems to be overly eager to trade up into the first pick, but it’s not impossible that a last second deal could be done.

I think the Dolphins have Chris Long, Jake Long and Matt Ryan penciled in as their top three guys in order. Miami will contact their agents before the draft and try to negotiate a contract. Whichever player manage to agree on the contract Miami likes best will be the player chosen. My suspicion is that Dolphins would like to sign Chris Long the most out of the three, but if things don’t work out, they’d gladly take Jake.

Quite a few mock drafts have Brian Brohm falling to the second round. There isn’t a clear cut second best quarterback in the draft at this point, but many think Brohm is the best of the rest. If Miami doesn’t take Ryan, they almost assuredly will take a QB in the second round. If Brohm is available by the time their second pick rolls around, Miami might pick him up. The team seems most focused on Chad Henne, who apparently has a lot of intangibles that have been impressing scouts lately.

Dolphins Scouting Brohm, Chris Long

The Miami Herald is reporting that several Dolphins coaches including Tony Sporano and Paul Pasqualoni as well as GM Jeff Ireland have met with Virginia defensive end Chris Long.

The Herald also reports that Jake Long will be visited soon. The Dolphins have already checked out BC QB Matt Ryan and Michigan QB Chad Henne. There have been inquiries about scheduling a visit with Louisville QB Brian Brohm.

Other than the Senior Bowl and the NFL combine, the Phins haven’t scouted Joe Flacco. Also Darren McFadden seems to remain off the Dolphins’ radar.

All this doesn’t really tell you too much. If Miami keeps the first overall pick, Chris Long, Jake Long and Matt Ryan are the three most likely to be taken by Miami. The scouting of other quarterbacks suggests that Miami will take a QB later on, possibly in the second round. Brohm might still be available then depending on how far Matt Ryan falls, and Henne and Flacco will likely be there.

Dolphins Looking at Henne?

The Miami Dolphins have been scouting out Michigan QB Chad Henne, attending Michigan’s pro day and supposedly have invited Chad to come to Miami for a private workout.

Joe Flacco hasn’t received much attention from the Dolphins since they scouted him at the senior bowl and saw him at the combine. Most signs indicate Miami is looking more seriously at Henne at the moment.

Boston College QB Matt Ryan was also scouted by the Dolphins on BC’s pro day, but not too much has been made of the appearance.

My money is still on Chris Long with the first overall pick if the Dolphins can’t trade it. The Dolphins will try to trade that pick and will give it away cheap, possibly a first and second round pick.

I’ve seen quite a few sportswriters talking about Bill Parcells’ drafting strategy and several have suggested that scouting Matt Ryan or other players may just be a ruse to convince other teams that the Dolphins are interested, to either keep pressure off the players they want, or to increase the trade prospects for the first pick. I wouldn’t put it past the big Tuna, and wouldn’t rule out Flacco going to Miami if they are purposely over-hyping Henne. For now though, signs point to Chris long going first and Henne being taken in the second round.

-Jeff

Dolphins Draft Update

Who will the Miami Dolphins draft with the number one overall pick? Has the situation become any clearer after the recent free agent signings?

Veteran defensive tackle Jason Ferguson, acquired from the Cowboys will fill an immediate need for a nose tackle in the 3-4 position. That should end all speculation that Glen Dorsey could go number one. I’m not sure Glen is the best DT in the draft and the Dolphins certainly have already filled that need.

There have been rumors about Parcells requesting tapes of Boston College QB Matt Ryan (against league policy), which have been dismissed as false. The Dolphins did have a representative at the workout of Kentucky QB Andre Woodson.

The Dolphins also signed veteran QB Josh McCown and he has said that he will compete for the starting job. Josh himself said that going by the numbers, the Dolphins will draft another QB this year.

My instinct says that Matt Ryan isn’t worth the first overall pick to the ‘Phins, unless they can line up a trade with another team that wishes to trade up. The fact that Miami has been checking out second tier QBs like Woodson tells me that that is the direction they are going in with later (2nd or 3rd) round picks. Look for Joe Flacco to be a hot commodity in the second round, and guys like Michigan’s Chad Henne or Kentucky’s Woodson to be available in the third. Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm will most likely be gone by the end of the first round.

While OT Jake Long is a top pick contender, I still have to give the nod to DE Chris Long with the number one pick. After that look for Miami to go after a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round and an inside linebacker with another early round pick.

Dolphins Sign Josh McCown

ProFootballTalk.com is reporting that the Dolphins have signed Josh McCown to a two year deal worth 6.25 million. They point out that the money is along the lines of a backup QB rather than a starter, which makes the deal sound pretty good.

I said earlier that McCown was mostly backup material and so signing him for a reasonable amount of money is a pretty easy pill to swallow. If he turns out to be a play maker and a reliable starter as some are suggesting, that’s great and the Dolphins can try to re-sign him down the road. The good news is that he has started games in the NFL and has won. The bad news is he throws a few too many interceptions for my tastes, but that could change with the right team. We’ll see.

The next big question is who will the Dolphins draft at the QB position?

The acquisition of Jason Ferguson at DT in all likelihood means Glen Dorsey is out of the running for the number one pick. I’m still thinking Chris Long goes first overall, unless Parcells works out a trade with another team for McFadden or Ryan.

Dolphins QB Draft Possibilities

ESPN.com analysts Todd McShay and Mel Kiper both have former Boston College Quarterback Matt Ryan at the top of their list with the number one pick. McShay gives the caveat that this will be the pick if Parcells isn’t happy with John Beck.

If the Dolphins don’t go with Ryan, most others are looking at DE Chris Long who will fit nicely into a 3-4 scheme or Jake Long, who will create holes for new OC Henning’s power running game.

Back to the QB situation; John Beck didn’t wow anyone in his first year. At times he was downright horrible, with too many fumbles, botched snaps and even tripping over his own linemen. For the most part, however, you really can’t judge a quarterback on his rookie year. I’m perfectly willing to give him another shot.

The Phins definitely need to draft another QB and sign one in free agency. It’s looking like they will not keep Cleo Lemon and Trent Green has already been released. If the Browns are unable to sign Derek Anderson, he would be #1 on my list for veteran starters. Otherwise, Miami will probably pick up a 2nd tier QB like Byron Leftwich, Daunte Culpepper (shudder), or Todd Collins. If Anderson isn’t available, I like Todd Collins, although Washington might re-sign him soon.

NFL Lets Churches Show Superbowl

Source: ESPN.com

You might have heard about an NFL policy that prohibited live showings of NFL games on screens bigger than 55 inches, and that a few letters were sent out to various churches threatening legal action for showing the Super Bowl at their church.

The Washington Post is reporting that the NFL has sent a letter to U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch stating that the NFL would no longer object to religious organizations showing NFL games regardless of the size screen used as long as no fee was being charged and it occurred on church premises.

The NFL initially was concerned about copyright issues and basically the idea of someone making money off of them. The churches claimed they were merely providing a wholesome place for members of their community to enjoy the game, rather than having them go to a bar to watch football.

It’s sad that congress has to get involved with an issue like this.

NFL 2008 Draft

Being a fan of the Miami Dolphins, it’s time to chime in about what might happen in the upcoming NFL draft. The Miami Dolphins have the number one overall pick and have stated they are willing to field offers for the pick. What the Dolphins front office actually means is that they are dying to give away this pick.

The team is in a complete rebuilding year. They have a completely new front office and coaching staff, and have already cut several veteran players. The team has quite a few needs and the more that can be filled from the draft, the better. The number one overall pick means paying a premium contract to that player, and can be quite a financial risk. Lower first round picks can be a little safer because they don’t go for quite as much cash.

The only trade rumor I’ve heard so far was that Miami might send the number one pick to Dallas, in exchange for two first round picks (Dallas has #22 and #2 and running back Marion Barber (975 yards, 4.8 yards/carry in 2007 regular season). The idea behind the deal was that Dallas would use the first pick to draft Arkansas running back Darren McFadden.

This doesn’t make much sense on many levels. Barber is a decent running back who has already proven himself. McFadden is a potential superstar and not a proven quantity. Giving up two first round picks and a proven decent player for one potential player doesn’t add up. I’ve long held to the theory that there are very few (if any) star running backs, just star offensive lines. Another factor in this equation is that of all the positions, Miami is deepest at running back with Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Lorenzo Booker and Jesse Chatman.

It would probably be in Miami’s best interest to trade the first overall pick, but the problem is finding a trade partner. There really aren’t any standout players available that scream number one pick and teams will be hesitant to trade up into this spot.

Assuming that Miami ends up with the pick, who do they draft? I think there are 5 players who should be talked about here.

1. QB Matt Ryan - Boston College

Ryan is largely considered to be the best quarterback in the draft, and he certainly had some impressive, even heroic games at the end of his college career. Some team will definitely snatch him up early on in the draft with the hope of him becoming their next franchise quarterback. My prediction is that team will be Atlanta, and not Miami. The Dolphins drafted John Beck last year and despite his poor performance, will likely give him another shot. In addition, Miami will take serious looks at veteran QBs available through free agency. There was one indicator early on that Ryan could end up in Miami, however. New GM Jeff Ireland made the comment earlier this year that the number one pick is usually reserved for quarterbacks. I personally don’t see this as a good pick for the Dolphins.

2. RB Darren McFadden - Arkansas

McFadden will certainly go high in the draft this year, but the running back position is the only area where the Dolphins currently have plenty of talent. There is an outside chance that the Dolphins may draft McFadden and quickly trade him on draft day, but this is unlikely.

3. DT Glen Dorsey - LSU

There is a lot to love about Dorsey. He’s a playmaker who can really be a dominant force on the defensive line. He is arguably the best overall talent available and the one most ready to step in and play right away. He has had some injury problems with his knee and ankle, and this is the main reason I’d be hesitant to spend a number one pick on him. He is strong, fast and agile but has been criticized for his size (6′1″). If the Dolphins decide to go with a 3-4 defense (which is likely with Bill Parcells calling the shots) Dorsey might have a little trouble fitting in.

4. DE Chris Long - Virginia

This pick makes the most sense for me. Long is an intense player who will fit in well in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 defense. Of all the players available, he seems like the closest there is to a known quantity. There won’t be any surprises and off all the top prospects, he is the most likely to live up to his potential. SI.com points out that pass rushers often get large paychecks in the NFL, and so taking one with the first overall pick isn’t likely to be overly costly for the Dolphins.

5. OT Jake Long - Michigan

Jake is a top prospect and could very well go at number two. I don’t see the Dolphins taking an offensive lineman over a defensive player. He is an excellent run blocker, but needs to work on his pass protection and might not be able to handle playing left tackle. He missed part of the 2005 season with a leg injury. Still the top offensive lineman available in the draft and a likely top 5 pick.

So there it is. The Dolphins would be best served by trading away the pick. If they keep it, Chris Long will likely be the safest pick available. The next most likely candidate is Matt Ryan if Parcells and his staff decide they don’t like what they have in John Beck. The longshot is Glen Dorsey, who might not fit in if Miami goes with a 3-4 defense.